105 research outputs found
Probing empirical contact networks by simulation of spreading dynamics
Disease, opinions, ideas, gossip, etc. all spread on social networks. How
these networks are connected (the network structure) influences the dynamics of
the spreading processes. By investigating these relationships one gains
understanding both of the spreading itself and the structure and function of
the contact network. In this chapter, we will summarize the recent literature
using simulation of spreading processes on top of empirical contact data. We
will mostly focus on disease simulations on temporal proximity networks --
networks recording who is close to whom, at what time -- but also cover other
types of networks and spreading processes. We analyze 29 empirical networks to
illustrate the methods
The Directed Dominating Set Problem: Generalized Leaf Removal and Belief Propagation
A minimum dominating set for a digraph (directed graph) is a smallest set of
vertices such that each vertex either belongs to this set or has at least one
parent vertex in this set. We solve this hard combinatorial optimization
problem approximately by a local algorithm of generalized leaf removal and by a
message-passing algorithm of belief propagation. These algorithms can construct
near-optimal dominating sets or even exact minimum dominating sets for random
digraphs and also for real-world digraph instances. We further develop a core
percolation theory and a replica-symmetric spin glass theory for this problem.
Our algorithmic and theoretical results may facilitate applications of
dominating sets to various network problems involving directed interactions.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures in EPS forma
Local variation of hashtag spike trains and popularity in Twitter
We draw a parallel between hashtag time series and neuron spike trains. In
each case, the process presents complex dynamic patterns including temporal
correlations, burstiness, and all other types of nonstationarity. We propose
the adoption of the so-called local variation in order to uncover salient
dynamics, while properly detrending for the time-dependent features of a
signal. The methodology is tested on both real and randomized hashtag spike
trains, and identifies that popular hashtags present regular and so less bursty
behavior, suggesting its potential use for predicting online popularity in
social media.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure
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Personal ethical settings for driverless cars and the utility paradox: An ethical analysis of public attitudes in UK and Japan
Driverless cars are predicted to dramatically reduce collisions and casualties on the roads. However, there has been controversy about how they should be programmed to respond in the event of an unavoidable collision. Should they aim to save the most lives, prioritise the lives of pedestrians, or occupants of the vehicle? Some have argued that driverless cars should all be programmed to minimise total casualties. While this would appear to have wide international public support, previous work has also suggested regional variation and public reluctance to purchase driverless cars with such a mandated ethical setting. The possibility that algorithms designed to minimise collision fatalities would lead to reduced consumer uptake of driverless cars and thereby to higher overall road deaths, represents a potential "utility paradox". To investigate this paradox further, we examined the views of the general public about driverless cars in two online surveys in the UK and Japan, examining the influence of choice of a "personal ethical setting" as well as of framing on hypothetical purchase decisions. The personal ethical setting would allow respondents to choose between a programme which would save the most lives, save occupants or save pedestrians. We found striking differences between UK and Japanese respondents. While a majority of UK respondents wished to buy driverless cars that prioritise the most lives or their family members' lives, Japanese survey participants preferred to save pedestrians. We observed reduced willingness to purchase driverless cars with a mandated ethical setting (compared to offering choice) in both countries. It appears that the public values relevant to programming of driverless cars differ between UK and Japan. The highest uptake of driverless cars in both countries can be achieved by providing a personal ethical setting. Since uptake of driverless cars (rather than specific algorithm used) is potentially the biggest factor in reducing in traffic related accidents, providing some choice of ethical settings may be optimal for driverless cars according to a range of plausible ethical theories
Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model
The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities
has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In
social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use
Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very
homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent
time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review
the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to
account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node
gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event
of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a
change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give
rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one
more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard
update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size
limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that
drives the system toward consensus configurations.Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 table
Universal features of correlated bursty behaviour
Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human
communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of
high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In
recent studies such bursty behavior has been characterized by a fat-tailed
inter-event time distribution, while temporal correlations were measured by the
autocorrelation function. However, these characteristic functions are not
capable to fully characterize temporally correlated heterogenous behavior. Here
we show that the distribution of the number of events in a bursty period serves
as a good indicator of the dependencies, leading to the universal observation
of power-law distribution in a broad class of phenomena. We find that the
correlations in these quite different systems can be commonly interpreted by
memory effects and described by a simple phenomenological model, which displays
temporal behavior qualitatively similar to that in real systems
Random Walks on Stochastic Temporal Networks
In the study of dynamical processes on networks, there has been intense focus
on network structure -- i.e., the arrangement of edges and their associated
weights -- but the effects of the temporal patterns of edges remains poorly
understood. In this chapter, we develop a mathematical framework for random
walks on temporal networks using an approach that provides a compromise between
abstract but unrealistic models and data-driven but non-mathematical
approaches. To do this, we introduce a stochastic model for temporal networks
in which we summarize the temporal and structural organization of a system
using a matrix of waiting-time distributions. We show that random walks on
stochastic temporal networks can be described exactly by an
integro-differential master equation and derive an analytical expression for
its asymptotic steady state. We also discuss how our work might be useful to
help build centrality measures for temporal networks.Comment: Chapter in Temporal Networks (Petter Holme and Jari Saramaki
editors). Springer. Berlin, Heidelberg 2013. The book chapter contains minor
corrections and modifications. This chapter is based on arXiv:1112.3324,
which contains additional calculations and numerical simulation
Lenvatinib versus Sorafenib as first-line treatment in hepatocellular carcinoma: A multi-institutional matched case-control study
Background: Advanced Hepatocarcinoma (HCC) is an important health problem worldwide. Recently, the REFLECT trial demonstrated the non-inferiority of Lenvatinib compared to Sorafenib in I line setting, thus leading to the approval of new first-line standard of care, along with Sorafenib. Aims and methods: With aim to evaluate the optimal choice between Sorafenib and Lenvatinib as primary treatment in clinical practice, we performed a multicentric analysis with the propensity score matching on 184 HCC patients. Results: The median overall survival (OS) were 15.2 and 10.5 months for Lenvatinib and Sorafenib arm, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) was 7.0 and 4.5 months for Lenvatinib and Sorafenib arm, respectively. Patients treated with Lenvatinib showed a 36% reduction of death risk (p = 0.0156), a 29% reduction of progression risk (p = 0.0446), a higher response rate (p < 0.00001) and a higher disease control rate (p = 0.002). Sorafenib showed to be correlated with more hand-foot skin reaction and Lenvatinib with more hypertension and fatigue. We highlighted the prognostic role of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS), bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase and eosinophils for Sorafenib. Conversely, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) resulted prognostic in Lenvatinib arm. Finally, we highlighted the positive predictive role of albumin > Normal Value (NV), ECOG > 0, NLR < 3, absence of Hepatitis C Virus positivity, and presence of portal vein thrombosis in favor of Lenvatinib arm. Eosinophil < 50 and ECOG > 0 negatively predicted the response to Sorafenib. Conclusion: SLenvatinib showed to better perform in a real-word setting compared to Sorafenib. More researches are needed to validate the predictor factors of response to Lenvatinib rather than Sorafenib
Weighted temporal event graphs
The times of temporal-network events and their correlations contain
information on the function of the network and they influence dynamical
processes taking place on it. To extract information out of correlated event
times, techniques such as the analysis of temporal motifs have been developed.
We discuss a recently-introduced, more general framework that maps
temporal-network structure into static graphs while retaining information on
time-respecting paths and the time differences between their consequent events.
This framework builds on weighted temporal event graphs: directed, acyclic
graphs (DAGs) that contain a superposition of all temporal paths. We introduce
the reader to the temporal event-graph mapping and associated computational
methods and illustrate its use by applying the framework to temporal-network
percolation
Opinion dynamics: models, extensions and external effects
Recently, social phenomena have received a lot of attention not only from
social scientists, but also from physicists, mathematicians and computer
scientists, in the emerging interdisciplinary field of complex system science.
Opinion dynamics is one of the processes studied, since opinions are the
drivers of human behaviour, and play a crucial role in many global challenges
that our complex world and societies are facing: global financial crises,
global pandemics, growth of cities, urbanisation and migration patterns, and
last but not least important, climate change and environmental sustainability
and protection. Opinion formation is a complex process affected by the
interplay of different elements, including the individual predisposition, the
influence of positive and negative peer interaction (social networks playing a
crucial role in this respect), the information each individual is exposed to,
and many others. Several models inspired from those in use in physics have been
developed to encompass many of these elements, and to allow for the
identification of the mechanisms involved in the opinion formation process and
the understanding of their role, with the practical aim of simulating opinion
formation and spreading under various conditions. These modelling schemes range
from binary simple models such as the voter model, to multi-dimensional
continuous approaches. Here, we provide a review of recent methods, focusing on
models employing both peer interaction and external information, and
emphasising the role that less studied mechanisms, such as disagreement, has in
driving the opinion dynamics. [...]Comment: 42 pages, 6 figure
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